The RefutationRefutations
The graveyard
How to tell a real edge from a mirage: plain-English autopsies of the strategies everyone repeats — and the failure modes that fool everyone else. Education and data-journalism only; never signals or advice.
MACD: the indicator is a passenger
Four predictions written before a single test, 320 tuned variants, three complete systems through regime cross-validation. Every signal failed; the filter was driving.
Overbought is not a sell signal
The RSI 70/30 rule is trading's most repeated pattern. We measured what price does after every signal, across four assets and six timeframes. There's no edge.
Did the golden cross lose its shine?
Finance's most famous signal, tested out-of-sample across six timeframes and six market regimes. It doesn't survive.
New refutations, straight to your inbox
One rigorous note at a time. Free refutations; paid members get the survivor research.
No signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.