About

Falsification is the method. The surviving edge is the product.

The Refutation is a quant markets research letter with an unusual editorial policy: we publish the strategies that failed as prominently as the ones that worked. It is not a "nothing works" project. It's a survivorship filter. Forty-three strategy ideas have gone into the guillotine; most get a headstone; a handful survive honest out-of-sample testing and get real capital behind them. The refutations are what earn your trust. The rare survivors are the product.

The whole identity is methodological honesty. We show process — base rates, next-bar fills, netted fees, out-of-sample regime testing, and what killed an edge — rather than forecasts. We sell credibility and method, never signals or personalised advice. That's both our compliance posture and our selling proposition: if you can't trust the person testing the strategy, the backtest is worthless.

Who writes it

No social-media guru vibes. No rented Lamborghini. The Refutation is written by a mathematics head teacher with bachelor's degrees in mathematics and chemistry (BSc Mathematics, BSc Chemistry), who has spent over a decade trading and investing his own money, including more than two years living and teaching overseas, among them a stint in Beijing. He got tired of backtests that were fiction with a P&L attached, so he applied statistics and the scientific method to build a robust backtesting chamber. He invests the way he teaches: form a hypothesis, test it, try to break it. He now runs that research live and publishes it here. You don't have to trust the author. The graveyard of everything that failed is the work it took to find each survivor.

This isn't a faceless account posting screenshots. The method is public and the graveyard is checkable: when a strategy is refuted, you see exactly how and why, and when one survives, you see the bar it had to clear. In this field that accountability is the product.

What it isn't

This is not a signals service, a Discord "pump" room, a course promising financial freedom, or personal advice. Nothing published here accounts for your objectives, situation or needs, and none of it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product. If you want a recommendation, see a licensed adviser. What we offer is the ability to think about markets like a sceptic — and the receipts to back it up.

Start here

• Did the golden cross lose its shine? A refutation of finance's most famous signal.